Scenarios can’t predict the future, so what’s the point?

Scenario planning isn’t about predicting the future.  It is about considering possible futures, the challenges along the way, and preparing ways to work with or around the relevant effects these events may trigger.

By considering a variety of possibilities instead of just planning based on the current trend, organisations can prepare for the effects of event types. For example; there are a variety of major disasters that could occur, earthquakes, pandemics, floods, etc.  While it is impractical to plan for each disaster, it is sensible to prepare for the common effects these events would create – possible lack of communication, loss of power, isolation.  By considering the effects that different event types may create the organisation can be prepared to maximise positive opportunities and minimise the effects of negative events. 

Scenario planning also takes into account a wide variety of viewpoints. By looking at what is happening outside the organisation, as well as at all levels within the organisation, this model assists planners to have a greater perspective on what may impact the future. 

In my situation, this would be a very effective model to use.  I have a lot of knowledge around the trends in education, ministry aims and current issues at my school.  However using scenario planning, I would need to include a wider scope of ideas and viewpoints.  This could include including the perspective of current and former students, parents, Board of Trustees members, teaching staff, resources and technology providers, university and Ministry of Education advisors.  By considering these viewpoints and discussing possibilities with this wider range of people, I am more likely to identify a wider range of future possibilities and be able to be more prepared for the variety of event effects that will impact my school. 

Revised research topic

Proposed question…

How does a rural primary school prepare for (or embed) the use of online courses and instructional video to support student achievement?

(What I want to look at is the use of online video & courses to improve the learning opportunities in multilevel classes – with a scenario planning lens this will consider and plan for how the school may need to change some of its infrastructure and curriculum expectations to embed this practice.)

Why?

I believe that students need to be self-motivated in their learning and be able to self-direct their learning.  The use of online video and courses means that students can learn and revisit instructions as they need to.  At a more personal level, using online video / courses would allow students in my multilevel class to receive quality instruction when I am working with a different learning group, thus maximising their learning opportunities.

What?

Major questions include – what infrastructure is needed, onsite resources needed, skills for teachers, new pedagogy to support effective use, perceptions of key users such as staff, students and parents – time frame for achievement?

Where?

I feel this is a key issue in rural schools around the world.  Teaching in multilevel classes is always a challenge as there are so many learning needs to cater to.  This could be an effective way to modify pedagogy and teaching strategies within a multilevel classroom to enhance the learning taking place.

When?

This is both an historic issue as well as current/future based.  The idea to use educational / instructional video has been around since the popularisation of television.   However it has not had the predicted impact on education, likely because the pedagogy hasn’t changed to support effective use.

Thinking about technology innovation, perception and the relationship between the past, present and future

“To dwell on the earlier fads and disappointments that technology has generated in education would be pedantic. Innovators like to believe that theirs is the real revolution. But technology has been about to transform education for a long time. In 1841 the 'inventor of the blackboard was ranked among the best contributors to learning and science, if not among the greatest benefactors to mankind'. A century later, in 1940, the motion picture was hailed the most revolutionary instrument introduced into education since the printing press. Television was the educational revolution in 1957. In 1962 it was programmed learning and in 1967 computers. Each was labelled the most important development since Gutenberg's printing press.”

                                                                                                                                                                —Sir John Daniel

Why would the major events and drivers of change you identified earlier be any different? 

What do I think?

Why would online video / open courses be different than the innovations and expected revolutions of the past?

Open access to education takes the control of who learns what and when away from the educator and potentially puts it in the hands of the learner.  A learner no longer has to wait until a course is available, until their teacher thinks they are ready or they can afford to attend the ‘right’ school.  However, this shift in education depends on the learners taking ownership and leadership of their own learning, which is something educators should be promoting and instilling in their learners.  The drive for life long learning.

Thinking about big change in education

“	In human affairs — political, social, economic, and business — it is pointless to try to predict the future, let alone attempt to look ahead 75 years. But is possible — and fruitful — to identify major events that have already happened, irrevocably, and that therefore will have predictable effects in the next decade or two. It is possible, in other words, to identify and prepare for the future that has already happened.	”
—Peter Drucker[1]

What do I think?

I think the use of online instructional video and open online courses will enable motivated learners to follow their passions, achieve their potential no matter their circumstances.   The challenge will always be to motivate reluctant learners, and help them see the benefits of education. 

MOOC intro

Tēnā koutou 

This introduction is for the MOOC part of the EDEM630 course.  

I am a teaching principal at a rural school in New Zealand.  I am working towards my PostGrad endorsed in e-learning.  I am enjoying the challenge of working full time and learning, although it doesn't leave much time for anything else!

I am hoping that at the end of these courses I will be more confident, not only in using e-learning strategies within my classroom, but also establishing them within my school and beyond.  

This is my first MOOC course and will be a fun challenge to learn how to navigate a new environment and participate in a wider learning community than I have experienced in the past.  

I look forward to learning with you all.

Ka kite anō

Megan